The result of the first round of the Brazilian presidential elections confirmed the forecast of the polls: Bolsonaro and Haddad will compete in the second round, on October 28th.
Bolsonaro was voted by 46% of voters, Haddad by 29%.
The worst possible scenario has therefore materialized, the most dangerous for Brazil, as I wrote three weeks ago. With an important change, however: Bolsonaro managed to get 51 deputies of the PSL elected, second only to the PT of Lula and Haddad, who elected 57 deputies.
Counting with the already explicit support of the "Centrão" (group of center-right parties that counts with 142 deputies), Bolsonaro - if elected - could have much less difficulty obtaining a parliamentary majority, compared to pre-electoral forecasts.
But this new fact does not solve the main question: behind the candidacy of Bolsonaro there is no consistent political program that indicates the path to the exit from the crisis, not only economic, which afflicts Brazil for years. Bolsonaro is the catalyst for those who reject the old politics and many who can not bear the idea that the PT returns to power; but he is a man without culture, who has built up his mediocre political career, until now, on the apology of the military dictatorship and on the exaltation of violence and intolerance.
On the other side, the PT managed, at least partially, to recover Lula’s potential voters, making their votes converge on Haddad. Counting on most of the votes went to Ciro Gomes (12.5%) and the few voters of Marina Silva and Boulos, Haddad can hope to leave for the run-off with just over 40% of the voting rights.
The race therefore remains very open, even if Bolsonaro appears today as a clear favorite.
Who will really decide what will be the new president of Brazil will be those voters who – like me, if I voted in Brazil – will face a great dilemma, a political “Sophie’s choice”: who to vote? An ignorant and intolerant fascist without any country project or who represents the party that brought Brazil to its knees and created the biggest corruption scheme ever seen in the world?
Meanwhile, the financial markets have already chosen Bolsonaro: at this time the stock market marks + 4% and the dollar is down by 2.5%.