Jair Bolsonaro is the new President of the Republic of Brazil.
With 55% of the votes he defeated his rival Fernando Haddad (45%) and thus interrupted a hegemony of the PT that had lasted for 16 years, that is from the first election of Lula in 2002.
Now begins a new chapter in the history of Brazil, full of unknowns for the lack of clarity of thought and intentions of Bolsonaro, who throughout the electoral campaign has deliberately avoided taking a position on the main political and economic issues.
Basically, Brazilians have elected Bolsonaro because it is considered the only candidate to sincerely embody the anti-petist and anti-corruption crusade. The goal was to wipe out the PT was fully achieved: what will happen from here on is all to be discovered.
In his first speech as president-elect, Bolsonaro used conciliatory and moderate themes, far from the virulent ones of the electoral campaign and this is an important signal for a country that has never been so divided.
Now begins the transition period, which will lead Bolsonaro to be president on January 1, 2019. Bolsonaro has promised not to submit to the usual market “parliamentary votes vs. government charges”, therefore he will have to show an extreme ability of political articulation. He is supported by the moral backing of voters willing to do anything to prevent the prevalence of “old politics”, but Bolsonaro will have to safeguard this capital and avoid getting bogged down in parliamentary negotiations.
On the economic side, the dollar is falling by about 0,5% and the stock market shows a growth of 2%.
Below I reproduce a summary of the newsletter published by XP Investimentos immediately after the election of Bolsonaro.
– Bovespa: has ample room for improvement and could reach, in an optimistic scenario, 125 thousand points at the end of 2019. In a moderate scenario, the estimate is that it can reach 105/110 thousand points
– Dollar: after an initial period of devaluation, it should close the 2019 quoted between 3.70 and 4.00 reais
– Suggested actions for the purchase: all the state, in particular Petrobras, Cemig and Banco do Brasil
For those wishing to access the full text published by Infomoney (in Portuguese), here is the link:
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