10 April 2019 marked the first important deadline of the Bolsonaro government: the end of the “honeymoon” with market and population, the period in which – by definition – a government enjoys maximum credit and in which almost everything can be forgiven .
What then is the balance sheet of these first hundred days?
The first few months of government have partly turned off the enthusiasm with which the markets had received the election of Bolsonaro.
The difficulties in coordinating the already complicated parliamentary approval of the reforms has ignited a warning signal among economic operators, for whom the reform of social security is a necessary condition for the rebalancing of public accounts and therefore to give a solid impulse to economic growth.
The 2019 GDP growth estimates are gradually decreasing, fluctuating between +1.9 and + 2.1% at the beginning of April.
Within a government that often seems to operate in an amateur manner, the economy minister Paulo Guedes is proving to be one of the few examples of competence. Whether one agrees or not with the economic choices of the government, at this moment it is essential that those who lead the Brazilian economy are credible and enjoy the confidence of the markets.
Democracy and institutions
Not only economy lives a country… One of the dangers deriving from the election of Bolsonaro was (and still is) a possible authoritarian drift. In these first months Bolsonaro has frequently shown a certain contempt for democratic values. Some of his statements are really worrying and show that the danger of an involution of the democratic process is real. The bad management of a ministry as important as that of education is an example of the damage of an ideologized, retrograde and – let us say – fascist vision on the function of education.
Difficulties in relations with Parliament are also a symptom of an inability to manage democratic dialectics, which provides for a balance between executive, legislative and judicial. By dismissing the role of the parties and parliamentary representatives as “old politics”, and thus rejecting a negotiation (which is the essence of healthy politics, that of mediating between different wills and interests of society), Bolsonaro proves that he has not understood its role as President of the Republic or, worse, that he wants to exercise it in a subversive form.
Never before has Brazilian society to stay alert and to ensure full respect for democracy and its institutions.
According to a survey conducted by Datafolha on 2 and 3 April 2019, the Bolsonaro government records the worst approval rating ever recorded by a Brazilian President during the first term. 30% of the voters interviewed consider the government “bad or bad”, 33% “medium” and 32% “good or excellent”; 5% did not know how to respond.
To get an idea of the situation, in 1989 only 19% judged Fernando Collor as “bad or bad”. For Fernando Henrique the percentage was 16%: Lula and Dilma Rousseff had 10% and 7% respectively.
Despite this negative figure, most Brazilians (59%) still think that – at the end of the mandate, in 2022 – the government’s performance will be “good or excellent”: a vote of confidence that confirms the support of the population in Bolsonaro.
At the end of January, the government announced 35 goals to be reached in its first 100 days of work.
A study carried out by the newspaper “Gazeta do Povo“, which I reproduce in full below, shows that 16 goals have been reached in full, 18 have been partially reached and 1 has not been reached.
Here is the detailed situation of the 35 goals of the government:
|Goal||Accomplished or not||Situation|
|1. Combating fraud in the INSS: Review about 6.4 million benefits administered by the INSS.||Accomplished||The government determined a fine on welfare benefits paid by the INSS under Provisional Measure 871 and established stricter rules for granting sickness, disability, maternity wages and confinement benefits. In the first year, the economy expects to be R $ 9.8 billion. The MP has immediate validity, but it must be approved by the National Congress to become a law.|
|2. Reduction of administrative machinery: Extinguish 21 thousand commissioned functions and gratuities.||Accomplished||In March, the government published a presidential decree in the “Official Gazette of the Union” to extinguish 21,000 positions, functions and gratuities of the Federal Executive.|
|3. International economic integration: Promote trade facilitation actions, regulatory convergence, negotiate trade agreements and reform the national tariff structure. Reduce acquisition costs of inputs, capital goods and computer goods||Accomplished in terms||Although President Jair Bolsonaro has made trips to the United States and Israel to try to sew economic deals, there are no practical results so far in reducing the costs of inputs, capital goods and computer goods, for example.|
|4. Opening of the National System of Vacancies (Sine): Opening jobless records for private companies in the recruitment sector||Accomplished||In February, the government met to take the first step towards the Open Sine. According to the government, this first stage of the New Sine, the labor intermediation companies interested in accessing the database, will make a pre-registration for vacancies view. Other steps are planned for the coming months.|
|5. Public procurement and administrative efficiency: Establish new criteria, conditioning the demand analysis of public tenders for the adoption of measures such as the digitalization of services, review of processes, readjustment of structure and skills, adherence to the centralized procurement process.||Accomplished in terms||At the end of March, a presidential decree established stricter criteria for opening vacancies for public tenders in the Federal Executive Branch. However, other points of the goal, such as service digitization and re-adjustment of structure and skills have not yet been achieved.|
|6. Literacy Above All: Launch a national program of definition of didactic and pedagogical solutions for literacy method with the proposition to reduce illiteracy from scientific evidence.||Accomplished in terms||On this Thursday (11) was signed the decree that determines guidelines for the program, but it has not yet been published in Official Gazette. The MEC estimates that there will be an official launch in the “coming days”.|
|7. Immunization coverage: Increase vaccination coverage for the following vaccines: pentavalent, polio, pneumococcal, MMR D1 and yellow fever.||Accomplished in terms||Although immunization campaigns at the national level have not yet occurred, a wide-ranging campaign against yellow fever has been carried out in the South and Southeast of the country due to the onset of the disease.|
|8. Possession of arms:||Accomplished||The decree that facilitates the possession of arms was signed on January 15 by President Jair Bolsonaro.|
|9. Anti-crime law: Propose a bill to increase effectiveness in combating organized crime, violent crime and corruption. The project aims to reduce bottlenecks in the criminal justice system.||Accomplished||The federal government has forwarded the three bills that make up the anticrime package for Congress. They are already in the hands of rapporteurs in the Senate and may receive amendments from other senators.|
|10. Operation Lava Jato: Immediate recomposition of the number of police involved in the operation, through recruitment for missions and removals.||Accomplished in terms||Justice Minister Sergio Moro announced changes during the meeting in the Senate Constitution and Justice Commission (CCJ). The explanation is that there was an internal redeployment of personnel that allowed an increase in the number of federal police officers in the “repression of corruption” police stations in Curitiba (from 30 to 55), Rio de Janeiro (from 42 to 52), São Paulo ( from 36 to 45), Brasília (from 33 to 40) and in the Special Investigations Service (from 8 to 42).|
|11. Mercosur tariff reduction: Improve instruments favorable to the productive sector through tariff reduction and dynamization of the external agenda. More exports and cheaper prices for inputs and products and services for citizens||Not accomplished||There is a lack of negotiation with Argentines, Paraguayans and Uruguayans.|
|12. Passport: Brazil Withdrawal of Mercosur passport pattern and resume the arms of the Republic as a visual identity document: strengthen national identity and love of country.||Accomplished||On the last day, the Foreign Minister announced that the new model of Brazilian passport, which will bring the Coat of Arms on the cover, is now ready to be adopted. It is enough, therefore, that the PF determines that the new passports will be printed and issued with a new design|
|13. Occupation of positions in the government: To prevent the political allotment of public positions, adopting objective criteria of appointment, as proven experience, technical qualification and moral suitability.||Accomplished||According to the magazine Veja, the Talent Bank, an attempt to order the appointment of parties to government positions through technical criteria, reached 2000 curricula.|
|14. Ethics and Citizenship Program: Elaborate and disseminate an ethics and citizenship promotion agenda to be adopted by schools in the classroom.||Accomplished in terms||Created in 2008, the program “One for All and One for One! For ethics and citizenship “is an initiative of the CGU, in partnership with the Mauricio de Sousa Institute, which aims to awaken in the elementary school students the interest in subjects related to ethics and citizenship. There is still no practical information on the expansion of the program. What was disclosed, only, is the holding of a meeting that discussed the reformulation of the material used.|
|15. Anti-Corruption Committee: Establish inter-ministerial committee to conduct anti-corruption policy in the federal public administration||Accomplished||The Federal Comptroller’s Office (CGU) announced the creation of the Federal Government’s Interministerial Committee to Combat Corruption on Thursday (11). According to the agency, the group will act “as a process of political transformation of proposals and agreements in favor of public policy reforms, seeking the continuous strengthening of institutions and mechanisms aimed at combating corruption.”|
|16. Anti-corruption system: Train servants of the units of integrity management and monitoring of the organs and entities of the federal executive branch.||Accomplished in terms||The Federal Comptroller’s Office (CGU) has informed the implementation of the anti-corruption integrity system on Thursday (11). The system is still in the execution phase and will bring together the regulations and activities already developed by the country in the fight against corruption. The result must be delivered within the first 180 days of government.|
|17. Encouraging family farming: Extension to two years of the validity of the Declaration of Aptitude (DAP) of the National Family Agriculture Program (Pronaf).||Accomplished||In January, the Minister of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA), Tereza Cristina, signed a decree amending the validity of the Declaration of Aptitude (DAP) to the National Program for Strengthening Family Agriculture (Pronaf), which goes from one to two years.|
|18. Environmental Recovery System: Improve the Ibama fines conversion procedure.||Accomplished||Bolsonaro signed a decree that provides for the conversion of simple environmental fines into a service of preservation, improvement and recovery of the quality of the environment. The decree was signed on Thursday (11) and is not yet published.|
|19. National Plan to Combat Garbage at Sea: Consolidate diagnoses, reassess environmental quality indicators, establish reference values and establish guidelines within a national agenda of urban environmental quality.||Accomplished||The Ministry of the Environment has officially approved the National Plan to Combat Garbage in the Sea. Within six structuring axes, 30 concrete actions have been defined to be taken in the short, medium or long term.|
|20. Privatizations: Increase investments in the railway network and modernize and expand the infrastructure of 12 airports. Auction 10 port terminals to expand capacity to store and move combustible liquid bulk.||Accomplished in terms||There were auctions of airports, railroad (North-South) and port terminals. The 10 port terminals were auctioned. Still, it can not be said that infrastructure capacity has been expanded. This will only happen when the winning companies of the auctions take the concession to effectively complete investments.|
|21. 13th of Bolsa Família: Expand the transfer of income to the 14 million families served by Bolsa Família||Accomplished in terms||The Minister of Citizenship, Osmar Terra, confirmed the payment of the thirteenth salary of Bolsa Família in December. However, the 13th announcement does not represent an effective transfer of income. This will only occur when the extra benefit is actually paid.|
|22. Support for athletes (Bolsa Atleta): Modernize the program for the stimulation of young athletes.||Accomplished||A list of 3,142 athletes was published in the Official Gazette this Thursday (11), which are the new entrants to the Bolsa Atleta program, for an estimated investment of R $ 31 million.|
|23. Assignment: Obtain approval from the National Energy Policy Council for the revision of the onerous assignment agreement and the technical and economic parameters of the pre-salt area bidding, scheduled for the third quarter of 2019.||Accomplished||The CNPE approved the draft of the additive term, which allows the auction to be held, scheduled for October 28.|
|24. National campaign to prevent suicide and self-mutilation of children, youth and adolescents: Implement awareness-raising and dissemination of information aimed at preventing self-mutilation and suicide.||Accomplished in terms||A national campaign has not yet been launched, but the Senate has approved a bill that creates the National Policy for Prevention of Self-mutilation and Suicide. The proposal follows to sanction of the president Jair Bolsonaro.|
|25. Brazilian Law on Inclusion: Ensure the promotion of the exercise of fundamental rights and freedoms by persons with disabilities and their inclusion.||Accomplished in terms||The government published a decree that regulated two articles of this law – those of number 51 and 52, which deal with the adaptation of taxis and vehicles of rental companies to attend to people with disabilities.|
|26. “Home education”: Regulate the right to home education, recognized by the STF, by means of a provisional measure, benefiting 31 thousand families that use this mode of learning.||Accomplished in terms||The government gave up making homeschooling regulations via Provisional Measure and prepared a bill addressing home education. This proposal provides annual assessments and criminal record restriction. The bill needs to be processed by Congress.|
|27. Desalination Technology Testing Center: Map technologies in water desalination systems under the conditions of operation in the semiarid.||Accomplished in terms||The government is looking for new technologies in Israel. Minister Marcos Pontes came to know projects in innovations such as water reuse and desalination.|
|28. Science in the School: To promote the interaction between universities and the network of public schools for the teaching of sciences.||Accomplished in terms||The program is scheduled to begin this month with four simultaneous actions: public calls for institutions and researchers, distance education in science education – “Science is 10” and the 2019 National Science Olympiad.|
|29. National Water Security Plan: Draw up the plan for the construction of dams, adductor systems, channels and integration axes of strategic nature and regional relevance.||Accomplished||The plan was launched on Wednesday (10), produced in a partnership between the Ministry of Development (MDR) and the National Water Agency (ANA). According to the MDR, the plan indicates 99 interventions for water supply and flood control, as well as studies and other works. The investments are estimated at R $ 27.5 billion.|
|30. Improve business environment: Instituting the National Policy of Tourism Management of World Heritage. Publish normative instruction that enables the implementation of tourism management in areas of the Union with potential for the sustainable development of tourism.||Accomplished in terms||The decree instituting the National Tourism Policy was signed on Thursday (11), but the government has not yet presented the details.|
|31. Restructuring of the Brazil Communication Company: Rationalize the structure of the company and value the content quality.||Accomplished in terms||In January it was announced the restructuring of the cadres and reduction of 45 positions in commission, but the question about valuation of the content has not yet advanced.|
|32. Ministerial Structures and Processes: Improve the management of the use of public resources within the state modernization program.||Accomplished||The government cut ministries and positions and created the “talent bank” to fill second and third tier positions. In addition, the government issued a decree to change the rules for hiring servers by public tender. This can be considered a state modernization program.|
|33. Electronic payment of debtors of federal agencies: Increase collection by implementing instruments that facilitate payment of debts with the Federal Government.||Accomplished||The Federal Attorney General’s Office (AGU) made available on Wednesday (10) the electronic attendance of debtors of federal agencies and entities. The tool allows EU debtors to make payments online.|
|34. Independence of the Central Bank: Follow current model in advanced economies, guaranteeing the independence of the Central Bank.||Accomplished in terms||The bill to guarantee the autonomy of the Central Bank was announced on Thursday (11) and needs to go through Congress.|
|35. Criteria for bank managers: Improve the governance of public financial institutions by establishing criteria for the exercise of the position, aligning with existing requirements for the private sector.||Accomplished in terms||A bill that established stricter criteria for nominating directors of financial institutions was presented on Thursday (11).|
NOTE: The survey was conducted by the “Gazeta do Povo” reporting team from the government’s own official channels of disclosure.