The first round of the Brazilian elections took place on 2 October 2022. We voted not only for the new President but also to elect the members of the Chamber and Senate, the governors of the 25 Brazilian states (+ the Federal District) and the deputies of state parliaments.
As for the highly anticipated presidential election, the final verdict is postponed to the second round, which will take place on October 30, 2022. Luis Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) reached 48.4% of the valid votes, less than 50% +1 vote necessary to be elected in the first round. Jair Messias Bolsonaro (PL) obtained 43.2% of the votes: less than Lula but many more than those who gave him the latest polls. In third place, very far behind, Simone Tebet (MDB) with 4.2% of the votes, followed by Ciro Gomes (3%).
The second round, between only Lula and Bolsonaro, therefore remains very open, even if Bolsonaro tends to be close to his “ceiling” of votes while Lula can, in theory, count on the votes of those who voted for Ciro Gomes and on part of those who voted Simone Tebet.
These elections showed that the aversion towards Lula and the PT is still very high and that many – as in 2018 – held their noses and voted for Bolsonaro in order not to see a representative of the PT as President again. The result is that of a country still split in two, where a candidate is voted more to prevent the opponent from being elected than for a real political choice.
A very important datum of the first electoral round is that of the composition of the Senate, in which the parties that supported Bolsonaro will have an absolute majority. Even if Lula were to be – as probable – the next President of the Republic, in order to govern he would still have to seek a compromise with the opposing sides.
The combination of these results caused the euphoria of financial operators: on 3 October the Brazilian stock exchange closed at +5.5% and the Brazilian currency (real) appreciated by 4% against the dollar and the euro.
The first post-first round survey, carried out on October 4, 2022 by IPEC, gave the following result:
– Lula 51%
– Bolsonaro 43%
– Blank / void cards 4%
– Don’t know 2%
But there is still a month left and anything can still happen.